Intel Index found that in February most brokerage leaders still expected to have better staffing by this time next year. But even before NAR’s $418 million settlement on Friday, that optimism had waned.
This report is available to subscribers only Inman Intelis the data and research arm of Inman, providing insights and market intelligence into the residential real estate and proptech businesses. Subscribe now.
Even before brokerage leaders began to seriously consider last week’s National Association of Realtors settlement, they were losing confidence that plans to increase headcount next year would come to fruition.
These headwinds for brokerage hiring formed one of the key findings of February’s Inman Intel Index survey, which recently sought insights from 811 real estate professionals, including 166 who hold leadership positions at brokerages or associations. people.
Participate in the March INMAN Intel Index Survey
Most of these leaders remain optimistic about what the market will do for their businesses in the coming year.
But with mortgage rates still high and Fed officials making clear they are prepared to keep rates higher than expected, many in the industry have begun to temper their hopes for the coming year.
That outlook, which remains positive but is weakening, was reflected in nearly every aspect of the industry tracked by the Intel Index in February, including Expectations for customer pipeline.
This may be further tested following the NAR settlement, which Intel will track in the coming weeks and months.
Read the full report below to learn more.
Recruitment hopes dwindle
Heading into 2024, the picture is clear: Many broker owners and agents believe the market has Has hit bottom prepare them for their careers Small to moderate reboundIntel Index found.
For brokerage firms, staffing to support agents is largely tied to transaction volume. If there are more agents or more sales, the company needs more help on other aspects of the deal.
To this day, this picture remains largely accurate. But a lot has happened since then, most of which dimmed the industry’s strongest hopes.
- Brokerage leaders expect the ratio to Higher headcount Within 12 months from 57% January to 48% In February.
- Estimated share of brokerage leaders Fewer employees Within 12 months from 7% January to 13% In February.
- Still, many brokerage leaders are taking a wait-and-see approach; 36% In the January report, they expected headcount to remain unchanged almost Over the next year – the stock price rose to 39% In February.
To be clear, this shift in attitude occurred before news of the NAR settlement broke. The March survey, which opens today, will paint a clearer picture of how industry sentiment is evolving in light of recent news.
Beyond this outlook, the survey provides insight into why underlying market conditions have deteriorated.
For some, negative emotions deepen
What’s driving weaker expectations for the year ahead?
Some macro factors are obvious: the Fed’s delay in cutting interest rates, stubbornly high mortgage rates and lower-than-expected trading levels are all possible reasons.
But we can learn more about the background through Intel’s investigation.
- Percentage of brokerage leaders who report having such experience Fewer employees Today compared to 12 months ago, January to February is about the same – recently hovering around twenty three%.
However, divisions within the group were more negative.
- almost 5% of all brokerage leader respondents said their headcount was “substantially reduced” in February year over year.
- In January, the same share was lower than 2%.
At this stage, it can be tricky to work out to what extent such movements can be attributed to market forces, or simply changes in the survey population between January and February.
But one thing seems possible: News of last week’s settlement is still unfolding and could have a significant impact on the prevailing sentiment tracked by the Intel Index.
Intel will continue to monitor this event and provide forward-looking insights as the industry responds.
Methodological Notes: Inman of the month Intel index poll Taking place from February 20 to March 3, 2024.Invite the entire Inman reader community to participate, and Intel 811 replies received.Respondents to this poll They were directed to the SurveyMonkey platform where they self-identified their profile in the residential real estate market. Respondents were limited to one response per device, but there was no limit on IP address. Once a profile is selected (residential real estate agent, mortgage broker/banker, business executive/investor/proptech or other), respondents answer a unique set of questions for that specific profile.because poll There is no requirement for demographic information such as age, gender, or geographic location, and there is no weighting of the data.this poll Will be conducted monthly, with recurring questions and unique questions for each profile type.
Email Daniel Houston
