Get ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha’s Stocks to Watch , a preview of key events scheduled for next week. This newsletter keeps you up to date on the big stories making headlines, including upcoming IPOs, investor days, earnings reports and conference presentations.
The focus of the week ahead will be the US jobs report on April 5. Economists expect 216,000 nonfarm jobs to be added in March, which would be slower than February’s 275,000 job gains. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.8% from 3.9%. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.1% quarterly to 0.3%. The JOLTS and ADP reports will also be closely watched ahead of the jobs report. Although earnings reports will be sparse in the first week of the second quarter, the auto industry will be affected by the release of monthly delivery or quarterly sales reports from Tesla (TSLA), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), Lucid Group (LCID), and others. Closely. , General Motors (GM), Ford Motor (F) and Toyota Motor (TM). The corporate calendar includes a hotly contested shareholder meeting at Walt DisneyNYSE:DIS) and a series of drug data presentations at the American Association for Cancer Research meeting.
Earnings Spotlight: Monday, April 1 – PVH (PVH). View the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday, April 2 – Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), Paychex (PAYX) and Dave & Buster’s (PLAY). View the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday, April 3 – Acuity Brands (AYI), Levi Strauss (LEVI), BlackBerry (BB) and Sportsman’s Warehouse (SPWH). View the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Spotlight: Thursday, April 4 – Lamb Weston (LW), Lindsay (LNN) and Conagra Brands (CAG). View the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Spotlight: Friday, April 5 – Greenbrier (GBX). View the full earnings calendar.
Volatility Watch: Trump Media Technologies (DJT). Short sellers have been under intense pressure on the stock, and talk of a potential gamma squeeze continues. The ticker symbol DJT was used by Donald Trump’s hotel and casino company and was later delisted by the New York Stock Exchange at a share price below $1.00.this The 14-day relative strength index for most overbought stocks includes Seafarer Exploration (OTCPK:SFRX), EMCOR (Do) and WK Kellogg (Kroeger). The most oversold stocks on the 14-day RSI include Project Energy Reimagined Acquisition (polyethylene glycol), SiriusXM (Desire) and Zervia (Know).
IPO Watch: No new IPOs are expected to launch in the coming week. Ryde Group (RYDE) and Lucas GC (LGCL) are ending their quiet periods to give analysts time to issue ratings. Certain shares of SYLA Technologies (SYT) and Shengfeng Development (SFWL) will be released from lock-up periods. Reddit (RDDT) will be in the spotlight again as its stock price continues to fluctuate following the launch of its IPO on March 21.
Electric vehicle delivery volume: Tesla (TSLA) will report first-quarter deliveries sometime in the first few days of this month. The electric car maker’s Model Y factory near Berlin has been shut down over the past few weeks due to arson attacks and weak demand in China during the Lunar New Year holiday, which could dampen overall deliveries. Seller sentiment has been pessimistic recently, with consensus delivery expectations for this quarter falling to 425,000 units from 494,000 a few months ago. By comparison, Tesla delivered 485,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter and 422,875 vehicles in the first quarter of last year. Ahead of the major report, Baird warned the consensus score may still be too high. The company expects Tesla to deliver 421,000 vehicles in the first quarter and 445,000 vehicles in the second quarter, compared with the market consensus of 512,000 vehicles. Citigroup also expects deliveries to decline, recently lowering its forecast to 430,000 vehicles. Goldman Sachs said other data also showed Tesla’s sales slowed at the beginning of the year. Analyst Mark Delaney updated: “Specifically, Tesla app downloads in the U.S. and Europe have declined sequentially compared to Q1 2024 and Q4 23, and according to Sensor Tower data, U.S. downloads have declined year-to-date. App downloads declined year-over-year from the first quarter of 2023.”). There are also reports that Tesla (TSLA) will reduce production hours at its Shanghai Gigafactory from six and a half days to five days per week, which could affect second-quarter deliveries. HSBC went a step further and cut its profit forecast, with analyst Michael Tyndall noting that cheaper Teslas won’t necessarily drive higher sales. “We can see that these price cuts may be supported by cost improvements, but we do not believe continued depreciation is what the market wants,” he noted. It also warned that Teslas have become the fastest-depreciating cars in the U.S. over the past few months as specialty buyers like Sixt and Hertz choose to reduce their Tesla fleets, in part due to uncertainty about second-hand prices. Even Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives is sounding the alarm on Tesla, saying the narrative is at multi-year lows, Elon Musk and the company are being attacked by bears from all sides. “But unlike other times, this makes sense now because growth has been slow and margins are showing a nightmare compression with China,” he noted. Ives said the next few months will be critical for Musk to lead Tesla through turbulent times, otherwise darker days may be coming. Trading in Tesla ( TSLA ) could also be affected by delivery reports from Chinese rivals Nio ( NIO ), Li Auto ( LI ) and Xpeng Motors ( XPEV ). Additionally, stay tuned for EV pricing news from Chinese V-makers BYD Company (OTCPK: BYDDF) and Xiaomi (OTCPK: XIACF).
Investor Activities: The 2024 Sohn Investment Conference will be held on April 3 in New York. In the past, the conference has caused some smaller stocks to rise after being promoted by hedge funds. Media giant Walt Disney (DIS) will also be in the spotlight, with its annual meeting taking place amid a battle over board representation. Some notable companies presenting data at the American Association for Cancer Research meeting include Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX), Illumina (ILMN), NeoGenomics (NEO) and Carisma Therapeutics (CARM).
Derived watches: General Electric’s Process (NYSE: GE) will continue next week into three independent companies focused on aerospace, healthcare and energy. GE Vernova’s (GEV) power and renewable energy business will begin trading on April 2 after completing its spinoff from General Electric (GE). For fiscal 2024, GE Vernova expects to generate $34B to $35B in revenue, achieve mid-single-digit percentage growth in adjusted EBITDA margin, and increase free cash flow by $700M to $1.1B. For fiscal 2025, GE Vernova expects mid-single-digit percentage growth in organic revenue, high-single-digit (low-end) percentage growth in adjusted EBITDA margin, and free cash flow of $1.2B to $1.8B. The company said it expects mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, 10% adjusted EBITDA margin growth and 90% to 110% free cash flow conversion through 2028. Ahead of the spinoff, J.P. Morgan analyst Seth Seifman was positive on GE Vernova, pointing to rebounding margins and cash flow, as well as diversified investments in the energy transition. S&P Dow Jones Indices updated that GE Vernova will be included in the S&P 500 Index.
Solventum will also start trading next week after being spun off from 3M (NYSE:MMM). The new company would spin off 3M’s (MMM) relatively fast-growing health care business as other areas such as industrial and consumer goods lag. 3M (MMM) said the new company’s fiscal 2023 revenue will be $8.2B and the global addressable market is expected to be approximately $93B. CashFlow Hunter, head of Seeking Alpha Investment Group, warned that sales growth across Solventum’s various business lines will be limited.
