Realtors are optimistic that their client pipeline will improve from last year’s lows, but that may take longer than expected based on sentiment changes in the latest Inman Intel Index.
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Real estate agents revised their optimistic outlook in February as a long-awaited interest rate cut was further delayed, an Intel survey showed.
Agency respondents to Inman Intel Index Real Estate Survey described a market where the pipeline of buyers is increasingly weaker than expected as mortgage rates climb in the first weeks of the new year.
The survey, which received 811 responses from real estate agents, brokerage leaders, real estate technology professionals and mortgage lenders, tracked changing sentiment in the real estate industry across several key business areas.
While agents are generally more optimistic about the year ahead compared to the previous 12 months, the survey found signs that many real estate professionals may be on track for a longer recovery.
Read their assessment of the market in the report below.
Plumbing problems
When the Intel Index ran in late January, there was a clear sense that the market was flattening and may have hit a bottom.
The pipeline of buyers and sellers appears to be stabilizing, with the largest proportion of agents saying in January that their pipeline was “about the same” compared to this time last year.
By late February, the number of agents taking a wait-and-see attitude had dwindled.
- Rate of reporting agents Their buyer pipeline remains unchanged down from last year 39% January to 31% In February.
- reporting agent significant annual decline is the fastest growing group in their buyer pipeline, from 17% January to twenty three% In February.
In other words, all brokers are reporting that buyer conditions are deteriorating, disappointing many real estate professionals as mortgage rates have fallen from their October peak and are expected to lure more buyers to the sidelines. .
On the listing side, agents report receiving a similar degree of directional clarity, but their experience is increasingly divided between good and bad outcomes.
- Rate of reporting agents No change to their go-to-market pipeline down from last year 35% January to 26% In February. But the group moved in two directions:
- Agent Report Moderate growth The number of listings in the pipeline increased compared with the same period last year 20% January to twenty four% In February.
- reporting agent significant annual decline The number of listing channels has also increased, from 16% January to 20% In February.
While the listing situation is becoming clearer, some agents believe the situation has improved, while others report it is still getting worse.
mild attitude
To be clear, agents who responded to the Intel Index in February were generally optimistic about the direction of the housing market in the year ahead.
only 19% In late February, of agents expected their listing pipeline to deteriorate over the next 12 months, while 15% Their pipeline of future buyers is expected to shorten.
Still, these pessimistic sentiments were higher than the January Intel Index.
- Agents who say they believe in themselves buyer pipeline Will improve over the next 12 months Decline 49% January to 44% In February.
- The proportion of agents reporting similar optimism about their listing pipeline has fallen almost equally over the same period, from 49% January to 45% In February.
Meanwhile, another noteworthy disagreement emerged between buyers and sellers.
Although still a relatively rare view, Pessimism associated with listings Nonetheless, this has become the fastest-growing sentiment among agencies.
- Desired Agent Ratio A lighter go-to-market pipeline in the coming year from 13% January to 19% In February.
- This shift has largely come at the expense of the idea that a pipeline listing would lead to one of two things: Moderate growth or Roughly no change within the next 12 months.
On the buy-side, agents are also gradually giving up on their once-rosy outlook. But they are more confident that things will get worse for buyers than for sellers.
- Desired Agent Ratio A lighter buyer pipeline Next 12 months from 13% January to 15% In February.
- Among previous optimists, more chose predictions that their buyer pipeline would look “almost” one year later.This share has grown from 38% January to 41% In February.
The Intel Index paints a picture of changing industry sentiment, and as the market heads into spring, the numbers could change in unexpected ways.
But for now, some of the optimism of early 2024 may be fading. This is a topic Intel will explore in the coming month — exploring its impact on the brokerage business, real estate technology companies and the lending industry.
Follow Intel to continue tracking the pulse of real estate.
Methodological Notes: Inman of the month Intel index poll Taking place from February 20 to March 3, 2024.Invite the entire Inman reader community to participate, and Intel 811 replies received.Respondents to this poll were directed to the SurveyMonkey platform where they self-identified their profile in the residential real estate market. Respondents were limited to one response per device, but there was no limit on IP address. Once a profile is selected (residential real estate agent, mortgage broker/banker, business executive/investor/proptech or other), respondents answer a unique set of questions for that specific profile.because poll There is no requirement for demographic information such as age, gender, or geographic location, and there is no weighting of the data.this poll Will be conducted monthly, with recurring questions and unique questions for each profile type.
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