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A new study shows that falling fertility rates will trigger a demographic shift over the next 25 years, with a major impact on the global economy.
Three-quarters of countries are expected to have below-replacement birth rates of 2.1 babies per woman by 2050, research shows publish Found out Wednesday in The Lancet medical journal.
This would leave 49 countries, mainly in low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, responsible for the majority of births.
“Future trends in fertility and live births will propagate changes in global population dynamics, drive changes in international relations and the geopolitical environment, and highlight new challenges for migration and global aid networks,” the report’s authors wrote in their conclusion.
By 2100, birth rates are expected to reach replacement levels in only six countries: the African countries of Chad, Niger and Tonga, the Pacific islands of Samoa and Tonga, and Tajikistan in Central Asia.
The report’s authors said demographic changes would have “profound” social, economic, environmental and geopolitical impacts.
In particular, shrinking labor forces in developed economies will require significant political and fiscal intervention, even if technological advances provide some support.
“As the labor force shrinks, the total size of the economy will tend to decline, even if output per worker remains the same. In the absence of liberal immigration policies, these countries will face many challenges,” said the book’s lead author Christopher Dr. Murray said. the report’s author and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation told CNBC.
He added: “Artificial intelligence and robotics may reduce the economic impact of a declining workforce, but some sectors such as housing will continue to be severely affected.”
Baby boom and bust
The report, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, did not specify the exact impact of demographic changes on the economy. However, it does highlight the differences between high-income countries, where birth rates are falling steadily, and low-income countries, where birth rates are rising.
From 1950 to 2021, as many countries became wealthier and women gave birth to fewer babies, the global total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of babies a woman gave birth to – more than halved, from 4.84 to 2.23. This trend has been exacerbated by social changes, such as rising female labor force participation, and political measures including China’s one-child policy.
From 2050 to 2100, the global total fertility rate will further decline from 1.83 to 1.59. Replacement rate—or the number of children a couple needs to replace themselves— is 2.1 in most developed countries.
Although global population is expected to increase from 8 billion today to 9.7 billion by 2050, peaking at around 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s, according to to the United Nations.
Fertility rates in many developed economies are already well below replacement rates. By mid-century, this category will include major economies China and India, with South Korea having the lowest birth rate in the world at 0.82
At the same time, the proportion of births in low-income countries is expected to almost double, from 18% in 2021 to 35% in 2100. Statistics show that by the turn of the century, sub-Saharan Africa will account for half of all births, according to that report.
Murray said this could put poorer countries in a “better position” when negotiating more ethical and fair immigration policies – leverage that could increase as countries become increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change Change is important.
